I did have some connections in the CHP’s electoral campaigning process and after a week passed I believe my ideas are more settled now. First of all, lack of transparency about the election night is quite discouraging. This lack of transparency in all sides is the very reason for conspiracy theories. I do not have adequate information to debunk conspiracy theories here. I will just state what I came to know or estimate… Secondly, a good analysis is here in Turkish.
I strongly believe this was a very good campaigning process for the opposition parties despite unfair conditions. I haven’t witnessed such dynamism for ages. The election result is a blow to the opposition citizens. I can understand the deep hopelessness afterward. I am sure this will trigger a new wave of self-exiles.
Despite relative success in campaigning let me see what CHP was up to: as of 11 pm on the election night, a friend of mine who was in CHP’s one of the major offices told me that most people there had already lost hope. While party leaders were urging citizens that Anatolian Agency results were wrong, they had already given in. Whatever the reasons, this explicit lie is a betrayal to the public. I am quite sure that they kept this lie until 1 am.
AKP may be corrupt but at least it is efficient. CHP is corrupt and not efficient. CHP got more than 150 million liras as election aid from the Treasury. I have heard that the same circle of people in CHP in Ankara got the election campaign contract again – like in the all previous elections. They have supposedly spent the most money on TV ads that nobody watched and as far as I could learn, they have not helped their presidential candidate’s campaign! Muharrem İnce had its own team and had its own campaigning and I believe that is the reason why he was more successful. In the meantime, CHP promoted an application called Adil Seçim something. This is one of the most farcical issues I have ever seen. Some assholes declared a few months ago that they would even use “artificial intelligence” to make the app work efficiently. IT DID NOT WORK AT ALL. I believe CHP cannot go beyond before investigating this farce. So citizens had to rely on a single source: Anatolian Agency.
Muharrem İnce conducted a good campaign until the election night. It might be just a humane reaction not to be seen all night. He might be depressed with the way CHP responded to the election process and probably misleading him in election results. I did not get any clues if he was threatened etc. But as I said lack of transparency is the reason for more conspiracy theories.
İnce’s next day speech was good but late. And when I re-think his talk, I begin to think it may not be that good. At one point he said “there might be some stolen votes, but he [Erdoğan] was way ahead.” However, when one sees carefully a mere 600K vote shifts could make Erdoğan get less than 50 percent and there would be a second tour. I think he made a big mistake by not following this. Like CHP, he also betrayed his followers.
Apart from possible irregularities, I think AKP and MHP voters were tactical again and this time towards MHP. They have become such an efficient couple. Despite HDP’s success, they could keep up the parliamentary majority. There is something fishy about the fact that MHP votes mostly increased in Kurdish cities. This might be due to increase in security personnel or of course due to the fact that hundreds of HDP officials were detained just before the election day.
One more thing is about the celebrations. AKP followers were out on the streets. I have never witnessed celebrations with guns before. This might just be the result of increasing individual armament in Turkey or as critics claim militia type mobilization of AKP followers… [update: 4 detained for firing guns]
— Ankaralı Jan (@06JAnk) June 30, 2018