What happens on April 25th?

February 4, 2009 by erkan

Yuvakuran below urges us to think about what might happen after April 24:

On 24th April 2009 Friday morning, it is most likely that the new US President will make an unavoidable and regrettable speech on so-called genocide, to put fuel on an 100-years old sad historical story in order to please his Armenian voters and to repay his election debt.

And he announced the most likely response:

The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.

New Turkish foreign policy seemed to have decided not to rely on the Jewish lobby in US that had helped prevent the becoming of this scenario before.
One likely idea might be that Turkish leaders believe Turkey has now self-confidence, that she is indispensable in Middle East. So that nothing changes.
But more likely idea is that Mr. Obama may try to bypass Turkey. His special envoy did not even visit Turkey… I do not think US or EU countries give much credit to Turkey at the moment and I am not sure if this is right or wrong but this seems to be the case. Turkey is risking her chances, she might win or not. Mr. Obama may have revolutionary ideas for domestic politics but in foreign policy he might have relied on the overall FP structure. Honestly, the best thing he could do would be not to start another war. We will see. But in the mean time, this dark scenario may happen. That is, the closure of İncirlik Base.

That seems inevitable. AKP cannot act against a sweeping nationalist reaction.

In the mean time, in these tense and but exciting times, your Erkan will be serving his military duty. Yes, it is time. I will write about it soon. I might miss some but experience some other things. We will see…

The Day After April 24th 2009

By yuvakuran

Dear Energy Professional, Dear Colleagues,

The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.

After every US presidential elections, Turkish Ministry of foreign affairs, Turkish armed forces, Turkish media, and Turkish intellectuals have an important task. When the winner is a democrat candidate, we should start to educate the newcomer, and his/her staff/ advisers, what they can expect, what to say, what not to say. ……………

Erdoğan in weekly satire magazine covers:

Erdoğan's (another) politically incorrect talk in Brussels…

January 22, 2009 by erkan

AFOE has a piece on PM Erdoğan’s talk in Brussels:Turkey and the EU: not yet a marriage of true minds
We are here in Turkey more used to Erdoğan’s style, which makes me sometimes very angry. One thing is certain: PM Erdoğan has nothing to do with diplomatic manners. He doesn’t care, he doesn’t mind. In other contexts, this makes him a popular politician. He is radically different from the previous mainstream Turkish politicians. Of course, this may not work with the politically correct EU people. This does not work with traditional Turkish elites, too. However, Erdoğan and his team are changing the very rules of the game. They may or may not accomplish this mission. I don’t know or I don’t condone the process. I am just an observer at the moment. But PM Erdoğan may be successful because of increasing erosion of values and powerful leaderships in Turkey and in the EU. I am a believer of the Enlightenment heritage but who can argue that these values are strongly held in Europe at the moment? Does Europe has a single mind, at all? Is there one politically correct way to continue?

In such a confusion of values and leaderships, Erdoğan could reply that provocative Cypriot parliamentarian in a politically correct manner. But what would that mean? Is too much political correctionism helpful at all? PM Erdoğan probably knows that he has nothing to lose anyway. The negotiations continue so slowly. His politically correct predecessors could not do better. In the mean time, Turkey is trying new leads in foreign policy which could be lucrative, in terms of energy sources, financial flows etc. It is a gamble.

In the end, we laughed at when PM Erdoğan was implying an obscene act…

"The 36 tests of Barack Obama

January 11, 2009 by erkan

"Turkish academics in apology to Armenians

December 15, 2008 by erkan

Turkish academics in apology to Armenians

Intellectuals break taboo to acknowledge genocide by Ottoman Turks

By Nicholas Birch in Istanbul
Monday, 15 December 2008

Around 200 Turkish intellectuals and academics are to apologise on the internet today for the ethnic cleansing of Armenians during the First World War, in the most public sign yet that Turkey’s most sensitive taboo is slowly melting away.

"My conscience does not accept the denial of the great catastrophe that the Ottoman Armenians were subjected to in 1915," the text prepared by the group reads. "I reject this injustice and … empathise with the feelings and pain of my Armenian brothers. I apologise to them."

[counter campaign by retired diplomats had also started (in Turkish)]
Ex-Turkish envoys slam campaign apologizing to Armenians

The ‘apology’ question

By SABAH EMRE AKÖZ on Turkish Press Review

A group of intellectuals led by Baskın Oran, Ahmet İnsel, Cengiz Aktar and Ali Bayramoğlu prepared and opened up for signatures a text regarding the events of 1915. The body of the text, which they debated for a long time before coming to an agreement on, was as follows:

"Deluding The Americans about The Anti-Americans

December 11, 2008 by erkan

Office of Chief of Staff gives Turkish journalists a ride to Southeast region…

December 7, 2008 by erkan

40 journalists are invited by Turkish army officials to have a tour in Kurdish populated southeastern regions in Turkey. So that these journalists will know better how the struggle between the security forces and terrorists continue… News in Turkish here.

Civil Society in “European Commission 2008 Progress Report on Turkey”

By USAK:

"Soner Cagaptay on Turkish Anti-Americanism

November 17, 2008 by erkan

"Turkey-Obama ties hurt by four obstacles

November 15, 2008 by erkan

"Montreux And Turkey

August 28, 2008 by erkan

Montreux And Turkey

BY NASUHI GUNGOR

STAR- We should be watching developments in the Caucasus more closely. Yesterday Russia officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in response to requests from the two breakaway Georgian provinces, according to President Dmitry Medvedev. Considering the developments beginning with Georgia’s attack on South Ossetia earlier this month, this latest move might not seem surprising. But in terms of the bigger picture, one can say that through its recognition Russia took a risky step in a thorny area."

This might never happen:

EU waits for Turkey to break its political crises cycle

Now is the time for Turkey to eliminate obstacles and to continue on its path to European Union accession, said the EU enlargement commissioner in an article he wrote for Turkish daily Milliyet,

I am not sure what Mehmet Ali Birand means. Just listened the speeches of new generals. Not a single change in their discourse. Anti-globalist, anti-EU, anti postmodern. Yeah the new Army general accused of postmodern thought that are a threat to nation-state!!! :

New era at the TSK

Mehmet Ali Birand

"Anti-Turk Biden's Pelosi impasse

August 26, 2008 by erkan

If things continue like this, Turkey-US relations will have tense moments. Mr. Bidden is good for Mr. Obama but not for Turkey. Or is it really the case?

An anti-Turkish vice president according to Hürriyet. He is known to defend Armenian, Greek, Cyprus lobby theses. But Foreign Policy experts state that Turkey is already changing is foreign policy attitudes and there won’t much new tension btw Turkey and US….

Barack Obama chooses Senator Joe Biden as his Vice Presidential running mate for 2008

Anti-Turk Biden’s Pelosi impasse

By MILLIYET, SEMIH İDIZ

It is impossible to expect that Ankara will welcome Barack Obama’s decision to appoint Senator Joe Biden as his running mate.

"What did you do for the EU today?

August 22, 2008 by erkan

This is a column title by İsmet Berkan but it well portrays my state of affairs; sort of. For the last few days, I am satisfied with the pace of writing and unfortunately these lonely office hours in evenings do not help. I would prefer a crowded and noisy office to this silent and being-alone office. I am glad this damn summer is ending. and here comes a round up mostly on Turkey’s fantasies with all-track diplomacy…

Turkey's "'all-track' diplomacy"

August 19, 2008 by erkan

AKP leaders are taking a risk by this all-track diplomacy. They might win big or lose big.

They have many in their cadres which could trigger this shift from traditional Turkish foreign policy and there have been signs of it already. Now, they are relieved of the closure ban and they are pushing for it.

After the visit of Iran’s leader, now there comes the mini African Summit and a notarious African leader, Bashir comes to Turkey second time in less than a year. As part of a grand plan, these risky visits might work but they are just too risky. The plan is to create independent good, powerful and profitable relations with neigbours. The plan is very innovative. After the 2nd WW, traditional Turkish foreign policy depended on its geostrategic importance for US. This symbolically ended in the first Gulf War where Turkey lost great and it became one of the sources of economic crisis in 2001. Major reliance on EU process in recent years also ended when AKP could not get enough of the process. Since 2004, AKP lost its belief in EU in general. I don’t think this means hostile thinking against EU or US. Although ideologues of the new FP attempt might be uneasy with them, their main goal seems to make Turkey a more equal partner in relations with EU or US.

However, even for those who try to be more neutral to AKP, there is the problem of substance. Is there any substance in possible relations with the new ‘allies’? Like it or not, TR has been part of the Western system since 2WW. Political, cultural, economic relations all depended on this system although they were never satisfying. Can there be sustainable relations with others? Particularly when some of the others are subject to systemic hostility?

The ideologues of the AKP Foreign Policy (first person to come to my mind is Prof. Ahmet Davutoğlu, is known to have Neo-Ottoman tendencies. However, he and others seem to be realistic, too.

oriental show off messed up the daily lives of Istanbul… always smiling Mr. Ahmadinejad is not really sympathetic in this context but he still apologized from Istanbulians, whereas our leaders did not bother to do that. Another center-wise reflex of AKP: Shut up you ordinary people, we are doing energy business here!

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (R) smiles while hugging his Turkish counterpart Abdullah Gul at the Ciragan Palace in Istanbul August 14, 2008.

REUTERS/Fatih Saribas (TURKEY)

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40 journalists are invited by Turkish army officials to have a tour in Kurdish populated southeastern regions in Turkey. So that these journalists will know better how the struggle between the security forces and terrorists continue… News in Turkish here.

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This might never happen:

I am not sure what Mehmet Ali Birand means. Just listened the speeches of new generals. Not a single change in their discourse. Anti-globalist, anti-EU, anti postmodern. Yeah the new Army general accused of postmodern thought that are a threat to nation-state!!! :

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AKP leaders are taking a risk by this all-track diplomacy. They might win big or lose big.

They have many in their cadres which could trigger this shift from traditional Turkish foreign policy and there have been signs of it already. Now, they are relieved of the closure ban and they are pushing for it.

The ideologues of the AKP Foreign Policy (first person to come to my mind is Prof. Ahmet Davutoğlu, is known to have Neo-Ottoman tendencies. However, he and others seem to be realistic, too.

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