You need Türkiye (!): EU population to fall by 12% by 2100

Here is a report from Euronews: EU population to fall by 12% by 2100: Which countries will decline the most?

EU Population Decline to 2100

Overall Projection

• EU population falls from 452M to 399M (−11.7%) between 2025–2100
• 18 of 30 European countries will shrink; 12 will grow

Countries with Largest Declines

• >30%: Latvia (−33.9%), Lithuania (−33.4%), Poland (−31.6%), Greece (−30.1%)
• 20–30%: Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia, Romania, Italy, Hungary
• 10–20%: Portugal, Estonia, Czechia, Finland, Slovenia, Germany

Countries with Largest Growth

• >25%: Luxembourg (+36.4%), Iceland (+27.1%), Malta (+26%)
• >10%: Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden

Key Drivers

• Migration is the dominant factor — countries with sustained immigration grow despite low fertility; those with outmigration decline
• Fertility plays a secondary role; Southern Europe has the lowest rates
• Mortality differences are too small to explain country-level divergence

The “Big Four” EU Economies

• Spain — only one to grow (+1.3%), thanks to high immigration offsetting very low fertility
• France — near-stable (−2.5%) due to relatively higher fertility and moderate immigration
• Germany — moderate decline (−10.6%)
• Italy — steep decline (−24%); Spain will surpass it in population rankings

Ageing Population

• Over-65s rise from ~1 in 5 Europeans today to nearly 1 in 3 by 2100
• Those 85+ will more than triple: from 3.2% → 10.8%
• Working-age population (31–65) shrinks from 47.8% → 40.5%