Back to the civil war in Syria

In recent days, Syria has witnessed a significant escalation in military activity, particularly in the northwestern region. This surge in conflict represents the most substantial shift in territorial control within Syria’s ongoing civil war in several years[1][2].

Rebel Offensive

On Wednesday, November 27, 2024, rebel forces launched a major offensive in northwestern Syria, dubbed “Deterrence of Aggression” or “Dawn of Freedom”[2]. The operation was spearheaded by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Nusra Front, along with other opposition groups including the Turkish-supported Syrian National Army[2].

Territorial Gains
The rebels have made significant advances, reportedly capturing several towns and villages in Aleppo and Idlib provinces[1]. By Friday, November 29, they had penetrated the outskirts of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, and were pushing southward towards Hama by Saturday[2].

Strategic Locations
– The rebels disrupted the M5 highway connecting Aleppo to Damascus near Zarbah, located 15 kilometers southwest of Aleppo[1].
– They gained control of the area between the M5 and M4 highways near Saraqeb[1].
– The town of Khan al-Assal, 5 kilometers west of Aleppo city, was reportedly captured by rebel forces[1].

Government Response

The Syrian armed forces reported facing a ‘large-scale’ offensive from what they termed ‘terrorists'[1]. They claim to have inflicted substantial casualties on the opposition forces.

Military Actions
– The Syrian military, in cooperation with allied forces, has been confronting the rebel assault using various weapons[1].
– Syrian and Russian aircraft have been targeting rebel positions and conducting airstrikes on opposition-held areas[1][2].

Casualties and Displacement

The conflict has resulted in significant casualties and displacement:

• Over 180 fighters from both factions have reportedly lost their lives in the ongoing clashes[1].
• At least 19 civilians have died due to Syrian and Russian air raids on opposition-controlled regions[1].
• The International Rescue Committee reported that nearly 7,000 families had been displaced[1].

International Involvement

The conflict has drawn attention and involvement from various international actors:

• Russia, an ally of the Syrian government, has resumed airstrikes after a hiatus of several months[1].
• Turkey, which supports some rebel factions, has been accused by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of orchestrating the rebel offensive[2].
• Iran-backed Iraqi militias, particularly the Nujaba Movement, have vowed to intervene in support of the Syrian government forces[2].
• The United States has remained largely silent on the rebel offensive[2].

Humanitarian Concerns

The escalation has raised significant humanitarian concerns:

• Some healthcare facilities and schools have been forced to halt operations[1].
• The UN’s Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for Syria has expressed deep concern regarding the impact of the escalating violence on civilians[1].

This sudden surge in military activity represents a significant shift in the Syrian conflict, potentially altering the balance of power in the region and raising concerns about further humanitarian crises[1][2].

Citations:

1. Syria Conflict: Aleppo Fighting and Iran-Backed Militias’ Pledge – BBC News
2. Syria War Escalates as Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Vow Intervention – Newsweek

The main fighting sides:

Based on the recent developments in Syria, the main fighting sides in the current conflict are:

1. Syrian Opposition Forces:

– Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly known as the Nusra Front
– Turkish-supported Syrian National Army
– Other allied rebel factions

1. Syrian Government Forces:

– Syrian Arab Army (SAA)
– Pro-government militias

1. International Actors:

– Russia (supporting Syrian government)
– Iran (supporting Syrian government)
– Turkey (supporting some rebel factions)

1. Other Involved Parties:

– U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
– Iran-backed Iraqi militias (e.g., Nujaba Movement)
– Hezbollah (Lebanese group allied with Syrian government)

1. Islamic State (ISIS) – While not directly involved in the current offensive, their potential resurgence is a concern[2].

The conflict primarily involves the Syrian opposition forces, led by HTS, launching a major offensive against the Syrian government forces and their allies. Russia has resumed airstrikes in support of the government, while Turkey is accused of orchestrating the rebel offensive. Iran-backed militias have also pledged to intervene on behalf of the Syrian government[4][5].

Citations:

1. Syria Conflict: Aleppo Fighting and Iran-Backed Militias’ Pledge – BBC News
2. Syrian Rebels, HTS, and Assad Forces Clash in Aleppo – AP News
3. Northwestern Syria Offensive (2024) – Wikipedia
4. Syria War Escalates as Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Vow Intervention – Newsweek
5. Syrian Rebels Seize Aleppo Amid Civil War Escalation – NBC News
6. Syrian Rebels Take Control of Aleppo – The Defense Post

Israel’s alleged role in the conflict

Israeli Security Interests

Israel’s involvement in the Syrian conflict is primarily driven by its security concerns:

• Containing Iranian Influence: Israel views Iran’s growing presence in Syria as a significant threat[1][2].
• Preventing Weapons Transfers: Israel has taken action to block the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon[1][3].
• Border Security: Israel aims to prevent Sunni militants from establishing bases near its border[1].

Strategic Opportunism

Some interpret Israel’s actions as taking advantage of the Syrian crisis:

• Weakening Assad: Israel sees the conflict as an opportunity to promote a weak Assad regime, reducing Syria’s ability to threaten Israel militarily[1].
• Golan Heights: The conflict allows Israel to delegitimize Syrian claims to the Golan Heights[1].

Limited Direct Intervention

Israel’s approach has been characterized by limited, strategic interventions:

• Operation Chess: Israel has conducted missile and air strikes targeting Iranian facilities and proxies in Syria[2].
• Humanitarian Aid: Israel provided aid to Syrian civilians from 2013 to 2018 through Operation Good Neighbour[2].

Proxy War Perspective

Some view Israel’s role as part of a larger proxy war:

• Anti-Iran Coalition: Israel’s actions are seen as part of a broader effort to counter Iranian influence in the region, aligning with U.S. and Gulf state interests[3].
• Support for Opposition: There are claims of Israeli coordination with and support for certain opposition groups, particularly in southern Syria[3].

Balancing Act

Israel’s strategy involves careful maneuvering:

• Russian Coordination: Israel has engaged in talks with Russia to minimize the risk of conflict and to address its concerns about Iranian presence in Syria[2].
• Avoiding Entanglement: Israel’s actions are tempered by the “Lebanese syndrome” – a reluctance to become deeply involved in a neighboring conflict due to past experiences in Lebanon[4].

Regional Power Dynamics

Israel’s role is interpreted within the context of shifting regional power dynamics:

• Axis of Resistance: The conflict is seen as an opportunity for Israel to weaken the “axis of resistance” comprising Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah[3][4].
• Strategic Balance: Israel’s actions are viewed as attempts to maintain a strategic balance in the region and prevent the strengthening of its adversaries[4].

These interpretations highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of Israel’s role in the Syrian conflict, balancing immediate security concerns with longer-term strategic objectives in a volatile regional environment.

Citations:

1. Israel’s Role in the Syrian Civil War – RAND Corporation
2. Israel’s Role in the Syrian Civil War – Wikipedia
3. Israeli Intervention in the Syrian War: Opportunities and Challenges – Russian International Affairs Council
4. Israel and the Syrian Crisis: Ardent Desire and Restraint Risk – Insight Turkey