Turkey’s EU process seems to have peripherialized in Turkish foreign policy but that does not mean there is no progress. There is at least some "stirring" recently. The new chief negoatiator, Egemen Bağış, whose sole duty will be the negotiation itself will certainly have an impact. There is a huge roundup here on TR’s EU process. Towards the end of the post, there is a roundup on the Davos aftermath. There are a few pieces on linking TR’s EU process to developments in the Middle East. Finally, there is the case of Atilla Olgaç, that I could not cover before. I have to agree with Hans who labelled him as "just another idiot amongst others"……
Turkey in Europe
What happens on April 25th?
Yuvakuran below urges us to think about what might happen after April 24:
On 24th April 2009 Friday morning, it is most likely that the new US President will make an unavoidable and regrettable speech on so-called genocide, to put fuel on an 100-years old sad historical story in order to please his Armenian voters and to repay his election debt.
And he announced the most likely response:
The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.
New Turkish foreign policy seemed to have decided not to rely on the Jewish lobby in US that had helped prevent the becoming of this scenario before.
One likely idea might be that Turkish leaders believe Turkey has now self-confidence, that she is indispensable in Middle East. So that nothing changes.
But more likely idea is that Mr. Obama may try to bypass Turkey. His special envoy did not even visit Turkey… I do not think US or EU countries give much credit to Turkey at the moment and I am not sure if this is right or wrong but this seems to be the case. Turkey is risking her chances, she might win or not. Mr. Obama may have revolutionary ideas for domestic politics but in foreign policy he might have relied on the overall FP structure. Honestly, the best thing he could do would be not to start another war. We will see. But in the mean time, this dark scenario may happen. That is, the closure of İncirlik Base.
That seems inevitable. AKP cannot act against a sweeping nationalist reaction.
In the mean time, in these tense and but exciting times, your Erkan will be serving his military duty. Yes, it is time. I will write about it soon. I might miss some but experience some other things. We will see…
The Day After April 24th 2009
Dear Energy Professional, Dear Colleagues,
On 24th April 2009 Friday morning, it is most likely that the new US President will make an unavoidable and regrettable speech on so-called genocide, to put fuel on an 100-years old sad historical story in order to please his Armenian voters and to repay his election debt.
The day after, we may read that Incirlik Air Base is closed to all foreign access.
After every US presidential elections, Turkish Ministry of foreign affairs, Turkish armed forces, Turkish media, and Turkish intellectuals have an important task. When the winner is a democrat candidate, we should start to educate the newcomer, and his/her staff/ advisers, what they can expect, what to say, what not to say. ……………
Erdoğan in weekly satire magazine covers:
Soner Çağaptay's one-man crusade continues…
Mr. Çağaptay has not written a single positive thing about the AKP government in 6 years. He is acting as if a deposed ruler in exile fighting back. His words could be more meaningful if he weren’t such a biased person. His reliance on neo-con anxieties of islamophobia is passé. The only loser in this game is these seemingly credible news media whose space he occupies…There is a quote from his latest bullshitting below. At the very end, there are two bullying views from Jerusalem Post.
In the mean time, Şahin Alpay writes Why do most Turks side with Erdoğan at Davos?
Reactions to Erdoğan's reaction
It seems that government had decided not to rely on Jewish lobby in the US. Against the Armenian Genocide claims, Jewish lobby was a constant helper. Israeli officials themselves downplayed the crisis, but not the diaspora.
I believe PM Erdoğan consolidates his domestic power. But I don’t think this was a staged event as some commenters claim. They have wild imaginations. Too much belief in conspiracy theories.
Turkey’s image? Hmmm when was it good anyway?
According to a poll, made in 30 cities and 1200 citizens by MetroPoll, 78.3 % agrees with PM Erdoğan’s reaction while 13.7% disagrees.
However, this does not mean, all those agree think this will have good consequences for Turkey. Still, that’s 55.7 %. On the other hand, 21% thinks this is not good for the country.
[roundup updated]
As of tonight, Erdoğan becomes a political legend….
Whatever the diplomatic consequences of Erdoğan’s reaction (or whether it is right or wrong) in the Davos panel, he becomes a legend for masses. Thousands are driving to Atatürk Airport to welcome PM Erdoğan’s arrival at the moment…. Now I hear that subway services are extended to 3 am so that people can go to … Read more
Diplomatically unimaginable happens in Davos
PM Erdoğan walks off the panel on Gaza in Davos after a harsh exchange of words with Israeli president Mr. Peres…. Turkey PM storms off in Gaza row Turkey is one of the few Muslim countries to have dealings with Israel, but relations have been under strain since the Islamist-rooted AK Party was elected Here … Read more
Ergenekon, March elections, TRT Şeş
Doğan Media Group (DMG) now recognizes that there is something called Ergenekon and they shift their energy to emphasize the failures in the legal process. This is healthier.
March elections for municipalities becomes a hotter topic day by day. CHP nominated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as the CHP mayoral candidate for İstanbul. This is possibly the best candidate against AKP. Although AKP’s mayori Kadir Topbaş is still more advantageous, it is possible that AKP may lose Istanbul. I have noted several times that I do not like Mr. Topbaş as a mayor. I don’t believe he would have any chance if he wasn’t an AKP candidate…
TRT’s Kurdish channel experiment continues to receive new feedback. A friend of mine is involved in a relatively popular sit-com in that channel. I have just heard…
A&G Survey, according to Milliyet, shows AKP is far ahead in competition for Istanbul mayor’s office.
Erdoğan's (another) politically incorrect talk in Brussels…
AFOE has a piece on PM Erdoğan’s talk in Brussels:Turkey and the EU: not yet a marriage of true minds
We are here in Turkey more used to Erdoğan’s style, which makes me sometimes very angry. One thing is certain: PM Erdoğan has nothing to do with diplomatic manners. He doesn’t care, he doesn’t mind. In other contexts, this makes him a popular politician. He is radically different from the previous mainstream Turkish politicians. Of course, this may not work with the politically correct EU people. This does not work with traditional Turkish elites, too. However, Erdoğan and his team are changing the very rules of the game. They may or may not accomplish this mission. I don’t know or I don’t condone the process. I am just an observer at the moment. But PM Erdoğan may be successful because of increasing erosion of values and powerful leaderships in Turkey and in the EU. I am a believer of the Enlightenment heritage but who can argue that these values are strongly held in Europe at the moment? Does Europe has a single mind, at all? Is there one politically correct way to continue?
In such a confusion of values and leaderships, Erdoğan could reply that provocative Cypriot parliamentarian in a politically correct manner. But what would that mean? Is too much political correctionism helpful at all? PM Erdoğan probably knows that he has nothing to lose anyway. The negotiations continue so slowly. His politically correct predecessors could not do better. In the mean time, Turkey is trying new leads in foreign policy which could be lucrative, in terms of energy sources, financial flows etc. It is a gamble.
In the end, we laughed at when PM Erdoğan was implying an obscene act…
"Turkey tries to revive EU drive
Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan (L) and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso hold a news conference after a meeting in Brussels January 19, 2009. REUTERS/Yves Herman (BELGIUM)
And a Gaza roundup below…
Ceasefire in Gaza…
Palestinian militant group Hamas declares a one-week ceasefire to allow Israeli soldiers to withdraw from Gaza.
We will not go down (a song for Gaza) by Michael Heart
Evidence issue in the Ergenekon case.
Forensic officers search for weapons in a wooded area in central Ankara January 9, 2009. More than 40 people, including three retired generals, nine military officers, a state prosecutor and a former chairman of the higher education board, were detained for their suspected links to a right-wing group. The military, which has unseated four … Read more
"Gaza, a virtual war zone
Gaza, a virtual war zone
Description: The 2008–2009 Israel–Gaza conflict began on December 27th when the Israeli forces bombed Gaza. In this conflict, digital tools have been used by the Israeli government, main stream media, human rights activists, residents in Gaza, and pro Israel and pro Hamas groups.
Tools: Twitter, blogs , You Tube and Face Book. It seems Twitter was the “star” of digital media in this conflict.
Turkey rejects Israeli FM’s visit if no talks on ceasefire proposal
Turkey’s foreign minister told his Israeli counterpart that she could visit Turkey on the condition that the terms of a ceasefire be on the agenda of the meeting, diplomatic sources said on Tuesday.
Egemen Bağış: Turkey's new chief EU negotiator
Turkey’s new chief EU negotiator Egemen Bagis (R) and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan pose for the media during a takeover ceremony in Ankara January 11, 2009. Bagis has been appointed as the country’s first full-time EU negotiator in an effort to revive its flagging drive to join the European Union. Entry negotiations were previously headed by Babacan, who was criticised in some quarters for a lacklustre performance on EU ties and is preoccupied with the Middle East crisis and Turkey’s two-year stint as a member of the U.N. Security Council. [REUTERS/Umit Bektas]
"Turkish judges" -so anxious…
Turkey’s Judges and Prosecutors Association (YARSAV) is particularly anxious with Ergenekon related developments and it was harshly criticizing the government today. There is a link below to that news.
There are rumors that Ergenekon case prosecutor is under intense pressure by the Judiciary establishment who proved itself to be more politically conservative the military itself in recent years…
Weapons and explosives, dug up from a hidden cache during an investigation into an alleged coup plot, are displayed at the local police headquarters in Istanbul, Turkey, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2009. A Turkish court formally arrested nine people on charges being part of an alleged secularist plot to bring down the Islamic-rooted government and police detained 33 more suspects while displaying weapons, dug up from a hidden cache. Prosecutors say the alleged plot aimed to destabilize Turkey through a series of attacks and trigger a coup in 2009. (AP Photo/Ibrahim Usta)
"Gaza, Europe and empty gestures
Georges Braque, Vase de Feuilles found in Priceless Treasures Drawn from Local Private Art Collections Star in Long Island Collects
On Israeli comparisons between the PKK and Hamas
Every time Ankara protests Israel’s atrocities against the Palestinians, Israeli spokesmen counter not only by claiming that Turkey, which suffers from terrorism itself, should understand Israel’s position, but also that "What the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is to Turkey, Hamas is to Israel."
Gaza and Turkey
Turkey could prevent neither the refusal of Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal to extend the cease-fire nor the cruel attacks of Israel, which has been preparing for this war for six months.