AfD not the first party in the German elections, while some Turkish voter moving to that party…

• A significant shift was observed, with nearly 20% of voters with Turkish or Arab heritage considering voting for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)7.

• The AfD made targeted efforts to appeal to Turkish voters, including Turkish-language campaign initiatives on social media platforms like TikTok67.

The German federal elections held on February 23, 2025, resulted in a significant shift in the country’s political landscape:

Election Results

• The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party Christian Social Union (CSU) won the largest share of votes, securing approximately 28-29% of the vote128.

• The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made substantial gains, coming in second place with around 20% of the vote, nearly doubling its support from the previous election128.

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, finishing third with about 16-17% of the vote, its worst result since 1890128.

• The Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) also saw significant losses27.

• Voter turnout was exceptionally high at 83.5%, the highest since German reunification in 199017.

Key Implications

Domestic Politics

• Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, is positioned to become the next chancellor, but will need to form a coalition government28.

• Coalition negotiations are expected to be complex, with potential partners including the SPD or the Greens7.

• The AfD’s surge represents a significant rightward shift in German politics, though mainstream parties have ruled out forming coalitions with them12.

Policy Shifts

• Immigration control is likely to become a priority, with the CDU/CSU advocating for stricter policies4.

• Economic revitalization will be a key focus, potentially including tax cuts and deregulation4.

• The controversial “debt brake” law limiting budget deficits may be reassessed49.

International Relations

• Germany’s approach to European defense spending and relations with China may evolve4.

• The new government will need to navigate changing dynamics with the United States, especially given the return of Donald Trump to the White House4.

• Support for Ukraine and Germany’s stance within NATO may be influenced by the election results4.

Challenges Ahead

• Forming a stable coalition government in a fragmented political landscape7.

• Addressing economic stagnation and high energy costs89.

• Balancing stricter immigration policies with the need for skilled workers9.

• Navigating the green energy transition while maintaining economic competitiveness9.

The election results reflect growing polarization in German society and present significant challenges for governance and policy-making in Europe’s largest economy.

How the Turks vote in this election?

Based on the available information from the February 23, 2025 German federal elections, the voting patterns of Turkish-German citizens showed some notable trends:

Voter Turnout

• Approximately 1 million to 1.2 million people of Turkish descent were eligible to vote in this election12.

• Historically, voter turnout among Turkish-Germans has been low, with only about 20% participating in previous elections25.

• For this election, Turkish community organizations launched campaigns to increase voter participation, aiming to double the turnout compared to previous elections3.

Voting Preferences

• Traditionally, the Turkish community in Germany has tended to support the Social Democratic Party (SPD)15.

• However, in this election, Turkish voters appeared more divided and uncertain in their party preferences1.

• A significant shift was observed, with nearly 20% of voters with Turkish or Arab heritage considering voting for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)7.

• The AfD made targeted efforts to appeal to Turkish voters, including Turkish-language campaign initiatives on social media platforms like TikTok67.

Factors Influencing Voting Behavior

• Economic concerns and social insecurities played a role in shifting some Turkish-German voters towards the AfD6.

• Issues such as immigration, refugees, and dual citizenship rights were important to Turkish voters14.

• Some Turkish-Germans expressed disillusionment with mainstream politics and concerns about Germany’s economic situation7.

Reaction to Far-Right Surge

• Many in the Turkish community expressed alarm over the rise of the far-right AfD and its potential impact on their rights and status in Germany45.

• Turkish community leaders urged voters to support democratic parties and protect shared values45.

While exact voting figures for the Turkish community are not provided, the election results indicate a more complex and divided voting pattern among Turkish-Germans compared to previous elections, with a notable increase in support for the far-right AfD despite concerns within the community about its policies.