Macron Appoints Another Centrist Ally, Government crisis in France continues

France experienced significant political turmoil throughout 2024, culminating in a government crisis by the end of the year. The key events and issues can be summarized as follows:

European Parliament Elections and Snap National Elections

In June 2024, President Emmanuel Macron called for snap parliamentary elections following a major defeat in the European Parliament elections[9]. This decision was aimed at preventing the far-right from gaining power in the 2027 presidential elections. The snap elections were held on June 30 and July 7, resulting in a hung parliament with no party achieving a clear majority[9].

Fragmented National Assembly

The elections led to a deeply divided National Assembly, split into three main factions:

1. Left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition
2. Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance
3. Far-right National Rally (RN)

This fragmentation made it extremely difficult to form a stable government or pass legislation[4].

Government Formation and Collapse

In September 2024, Macron appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister[1]. However, Barnier’s government faced immediate challenges due to the lack of a parliamentary majority. The situation deteriorated when Barnier attempted to push through an austerity budget for 2025, which included:

• €20 billion in tax hikes
• €40 billion in government spending cuts[2]

This move led to a no-confidence vote on December 4, 2024, where 331 lawmakers from both the left and far-right voted to oust Barnier’s government[5]. This marked the first time since 1962 that a French government fell due to a no-confidence vote[8].

Political Crisis and Uncertainty

The fall of Barnier’s government plunged France into a deep political crisis:

• No approved budget for 2025
• Difficulty in forming a new government due to the fragmented parliament
• Calls from opposition leaders for Macron to resign[7]

Appointment of New Prime Minister

On December 13, 2024, Macron appointed François Bayrou, a 73-year-old centrist ally from the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party, as the new Prime Minister[7]. However, it remains uncertain whether Bayrou can maintain a stable government given the ongoing political divisions.

Implications for France and Europe

This political instability in France, coupled with similar issues in Germany, has raised concerns about:

• European security
• Transatlantic relations
• Economic stability in the Eurozone[4]

As 2024 comes to a close, France faces an uncertain political future, with potential challenges in passing a budget, implementing reforms, and maintaining stable governance[3].

Citations:
[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/everything-you-need-to-know-france-political-crisis-that-could-plunge-eurozone-marine-le-pen-michel-barnier/
[2] https://www.france24.com/en/france/20241202-why-the-french-government-is-headed-for-collapse
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/05/frances-barnier-government-is-gone-but-what-happens-next.html
[4] https://www.npr.org/2024/12/05/nx-s1-5217601/france-germany-europe-politics
[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-lawmakers-set-vote-ousting-prime-minister-barnier-2024-12-04/
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_political_crisis
[7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/13/who-is-francois-bayrou-frances-new-prime-minister
[8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/5/french-government-falls-whats-next-for-macron-le-pen-france
[9] https://ataum.ankara.edu.tr/2024/09/30/france-avoids-far-right-rule/