Another u-turn: Rapprochement between Turkey and Syria?

Jihadists may not like this. There are clear signs of a rapprochement between Turkey and Syria after over a decade of severed diplomatic ties. Here are the key points:

1. Recent statements: Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have recently expressed willingness to restore diplomatic relations[3][8]. Erdogan stated there is “no reason why relations should not be reestablished” with Syria[3].

2. Diplomatic efforts: Russia has been mediating talks between Turkey and Syria, with defense ministers from both countries meeting in Moscow in December 2022[9]. Iraq has also offered to host a meeting between Turkey and Syria in Baghdad[16].

3. Motivating factors:

– Turkey wants to address the issue of Syrian refugees in Turkey and security concerns along the border[9].
– Syria seeks to end its regional isolation and regain control over areas like Idlib[11].
– Both countries share concerns about Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria[9].

1. Challenges: The process faces obstacles, including:

– Anti-Syrian protests in Turkey and anti-Turkish protests in Syria[11].
– Disagreements over Turkish military presence in northern Syria[5].
– Differing priorities regarding armed groups in Syria[5].

1. Regional context: This rapprochement is part of broader regional realignments, influenced by factors like the Gaza conflict and changing dynamics in the Middle East[5].

While significant progress has been made towards normalizing relations, the process is still ongoing and faces several hurdles. The outcome will likely have important implications for the region, particularly regarding the situation in northern Syria and the status of Syrian refugees in Turkey[9][11].

Citations:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria%E2%80%93Turkey_relations
[2] https://bianet.org/haber/syria-conditions-normalization-with-turkey-to-return-to-pre-2011-status-quo-297488
[3] https://apnews.com/article/turkey-syria-diplomatic-relations-ec9876ed10183ef235c38ca387ac4731
[4] https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/02/why-turkeys-syria-policy-may-be-about-to-change?lang=en
[5] https://www.newarab.com/analysis/what-turkey-syria-rapprochement-might-mean-syrias-kurds
[6] https://www.mfa.gov.tr/relations-between-turkiye%E2%80%93syria.en.mfa
[7] https://tcf.org/content/report/the-long-road-to-rapprochement-between-syria-and-turkey/
[8] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/07/erdogan-woos-assad-turkey-syria-reconciliation-rhetoric-or-reality
[9] https://www.voanews.com/a/syria-turkey-rapprochement-here-s-what-it-might-mean-for-the-region/7696480.html
[10] https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/east-mediterranean/turkiye-syria/turkiyes-syria-policy-after-erdogans-win
[11] https://www.dw.com/en/as-turkey-syria-thaw-ties-unrest-may-derail-reconciliation/a-69547246
[12] https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/turkeys-erdogan-renews-push-restore-ties-syria-severed-111726656
[13] https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/261775
[14] https://theowp.org/turning-the-page-erdogan-invites-assad-for-talks-to-revive-turkey-syria-ties/
[15] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/turkey-s-erdogan-syria-s-assad-signal-readiness-to-restore-ties
[16] https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/120720241