From The New Media Theory Reader, 39-40

The New Media Theory Reader

A basic development in the very near future is the merger of computers and
telecommunications (Bradley et al., 1993; Scientific American Special Issue, 1991),
known variously as the information superhighway (Koelsch, 1995), the infobahn
(Mitchell, 1995), Integrated Services Digital Network (Horrocks/Scarr, 1993), the
telecomputer (Gilder, 1990), the SuperTube (Minow/LaMay, 1995) the National
Information Infrastructure (Kahin/Abbate, 1995), the global information utility
(Masuda, 1980: 1990), multimedia computing (Laudon et al., 1994), C&C/
computers and communications (Makridakis, 1995), universal information systems
(Mayo, 1990), integrated information environments (Leebaret, 1991), Omnimedia
(Snider/Ziporyn, 1992), and the network of networks (Blackman, 1994; Coates,
1994).
Other interrelated developments and expectations are:
? microprocessor performance doubling every 18 months through 2000 and
perhaps beyond (Patterson, 1995; Mayo, 1992);
? ubiquitous computing/embodied reality as dominant mode of computer access
over the next 20 years (Weiser, 1991);
? Very Large Scale Integration as key (Horrocks/Scarr, 1993);
? Internet and World Wide Web: explosive growth (Sussman, 1995);
? virtual reality (Durlach/Mavor, 1995; Adam, 1993; Aukstakalnis/Blatner, 1992);
42 THE NEW MEDIA THEORY READER
? mirror worlds by end of 1990s (Gelerntner, 1991);
? expert systems widespread by 1998 (Halal, 1993);
? voice-access computers by 2002 (Halal, 1993; Roe/Wilpan, 1994);
? software agents/custom-designed software (Maes, 1995; Leebaert, 1995);
? Global Brain as emergent structure (Mayer-Kress/Barczys, 1995; Pelton, 1989);
? language translators for some vocabularies by 2025 (Coates, 1994);
? global currency by 2025 (Coates, 1994);
? smart cards for most Americans within three years (Belsie, 1993);
? e-mail as dominant telecom media in 15 years (Negroponte, 1995);
? wrist-mounted TV/computer/telephone in 5 years (Negroponte, 1995);
? photonic lightwave transmission systems capability doubling annually for next
two decades (Mayo, 1992);
? Universal Information Systems offering any combination, anywhere, anytime
(Mayo, 1990);
? public networks enabling access for all by 2007 (Halal, 1993);
? 500-channel cable TV (Brody, 1993);
? home distribution video systems in a few years (Minoli, 1995);
? long-distance charges abolished by 2001 (Lundberg, 1991);
? a global personal communicator by 2010 (Lundberg, 1991);
? wireless cellular services for nearly a half billion people worldwide by 2001
(Zyzman, 1995);
? fiber amplifiers increasing lightwave communication transmission capacities by a
factor of 100 (Desurvire, 1992);
? pager use up 15% per annum for next few years (MacLachlan, 1993);
? electronic book under development (Markoff, 1991; Lande, 1991);
? service robotics outstripping industrial robotics before 1995 (Engelberger, 1989);
? robots widespread by 2015 (Makridakis, 1995);
? humanlike androids to perform ?drudge? jobs within 20 years (Caudill, 1992);
? greater-than-human intelligence within 30 years (Vinge, 1993); and
? human equivalence (AI) in desktop computers in 30?65 years (Crevier, 1993);

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